There is no doubt that the Mexican economy can capitalize on the momentum of nearshoring.
Unlike the general consensus, GBM's outlook on the performance of the Mexican economy in 2024 leans towards a more optimistic estimation. We believe that the country's GDP will close the year with a growth of 2.8%, supported by robust consumption dynamics, expansive fiscal policy, and the positive effects brought by nearshoring.
This business strategy, which involves transferring processes, services, and functions from one area to another representing a shorter geographic distance, emerges as an engine for the economy during this 2024, as it has contributed to redefining business dynamics and fostered significant investment opportunities. The manufacturing industries have reaped the greatest benefits from this growing opportunity, especially in electrical machinery, nuclear reactors, vehicles, and auto parts.
Furthermore, in 2023 Mexico became the largest trading partner of the United States, surpassing China and Canada, while the growing interest in the industrial real estate sector, especially in northern Mexico due to its proximity to the United States, reflects the enthusiasm foreign companies have for the national territory.
Specifically, GBM's analysis team estimates that this phenomenon will contribute to the growth of the Mexican GDP by approximately 45 basis points, attracting around 9 billion dollars in gross fixed investment, especially in the northern states of the country, but also with significant development in the southeast, thanks to structural public-private projects presented in the region.
For example, the consolidation of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec Corridor in 2024 will continue to attract investments and business development to the region, allowing us to foresee that the industrial expansion of the south will soon shine brightly enough to attract the attention of the East Coast of the United States, a region that Mexico has yet to fully address.
Likewise, over the past year, foreign companies such as Tesla, Jetour, Iberdrola, Honda, BMW, and Toyota, among others, have announced investments totaling more than 45 billion dollars, which could begin to be executed from 2024.
There is no doubt that the Mexican economy can capitalize on the momentum of nearshoring, leveraging its solid commercial relationship with the United States to consolidate a Mexican moment during 2024 and in the coming years.
Source: Mundo Ejecutivo
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